Tuesday, November 06, 2007

The Odds, baby!

Hey. Howya doin'? TK, yer friendly local neighborhood bookie here. Just popped by to elucidate for you one of the mysteries of yer lifes. The odds. On stuff. Like I make a few bucks on now an' then. Jus' between friends. Yuh know.

You ever think about how yer gonna kick it? Heh, heh. Every time ye set foot on one o' them tin cans in the sky, right? Me too. So I checked with a guy who knows a guy, who's got a brother-in-law in Jersey who's running book out o' some college over dere. Princeton er some such. Anyhoo. I got some of th' latest numbers and youse just might be surprised to learn from what (and WHOM) you is likely to snuff it.

1 in 5 on Heart Disease
1 in 7 on the Big "C"
1 in 23 Stroke (an' not the kind from a guy named Guido)
1 in 100 Motor Vehicle accident (not countin' yer spontaneous lead overdose)
1 in 246 Fallin' Down (also not countin' those wi' a abrupt lead acquisition) (see below)
1 in 345 Assault by Firearm (this is yer "catchin' lead projectile" category)
1 in 1,116 Fire or Smoke (an' not from yer Marlboroghs) (see above.)
1 in 5,000 Electrocution (non-state-sponsored) (see below)
1 in 8,942 Drownin'
1 in 20,000 Air Travel Accident (Yeah, sounds riskier than youse thought)
1 in 30,000 Flood
1 in 58,618 Legal Execution (pause to remember the mopes what has gone before)
1 in 60,000 Tornado
1 in 83,930 Lightning Strike
1 in 100,000 Snake, Bee, or other Venomous Bite or Sting
1 in 131,890 Earthquake
1 in 147,717 Dog attack
1 in 200,000 Asteroid Impact (youse know anybody got whacked by a asteroid?)
1 in 500,000 Tsunami (whatever the hell that is)
1 in 615,488 Fireworks Discharge (this don't reflect the losin' fingers part)

So there youse got it. Th' odds on snuffin' it. Okay-- the goomba at Princeton diddn' take my call. I'll send somebody ta have a talk wi' him later. I--ahem-- looked dese up. Courtesy o' the National Center fer Health Statistics, yer CDC, and yer National Safety Council. Oh yeah, an' NASA. Interestin' that NASA didn' say nothin' about th' odds of kickin' it as a astronaut. So in th' in-ter-est o' science, I did a little more diggin'. I found odds on bein' an astronaut, but not on dying from bein' one. That's smart, that is. NASA keepin' mum on the down side risk.

But while I was at it, I found a few other in-for-ma-tive numbers. Check dese out.

1 in 4,464 Odds of injury from using a chain saw
1 in 3,623 Odds of injury from mowin' the grass
1 in 2,232 Odds of fatally slippin' in bath or shower
1 in 18,000 Odds of bein' whacked
(or in our neighborhood, 1 in 3. heh, heh)
1 in 2 Odds of gettin' away with murder
(at's a relief)
1 in 88,000 Odds of datin' a supermodel
1 in 7,000 Odds of bein' thought possessed by Satan 1 in 7,000
(except by yer grandma)
1 in 25 Odds of gettin' hemorrhoids
1 in 220 Odds of writin' a New York Times Bestseller
1 in 200 Odds of havin' yer identity stole !
1 in 215 Odds of datin' a millionaire
(good news dere. only 209 to go!)
1 in 22,000 Odds of becomin' a pro athlete
1 in 117 Odds of bein' on a plane with a drunk pilot !!
1 in 20,000,000 Odds of gettin' cannonized
(no surprise dere. heh.)
1 in 175 Odds of bein' audited by th' friggin' IRS
1 in 60,000 Odds of striking it rich on Antiques Road Show
1 in 13,000,000 Odds of winnin' the California Lottery !!!!!!

1 in 5,000 Odds of earth havin' a "cat-o-strophic" collision
wi' a big-assed asteroid in the next 100 years
(wi' my luck it'll be the day after I win the California Lottery!)

So, there ye got it. Not yer most pleasant musin's on Toosday mornin. But hey-- that Krahn broad didn' give me too much warnin', yuh know? I'da thought up something wi' a bit more pizzaza. Like how to get blood outta table linens an' leather upholstery, er somethin'.

So. My ad-vice? Quitchyer worryin'. Life's short, yuh know? Who knows when that lawn mower w' yer name on it will come whizzin' across the grass. So, jus' avoid yer chain saws, yer bathtubs an' showers, an' yer fatty foods and get on wi' it! Live like you never heard o' Guido. Dance like nobody's shootin' at yer feet. Love like Lola ain't bein' paid by the hour.

Whatcha worried about? Tell TK all about it. An' hey-- youse got any numbers to share wi' the fam'ly. . . let's hear 'em. Cause, when yer here, yer fam'ly. Know what I mean?


Debra Dixon said...

These are fascinating! And I love your new "voice," Betina. LOL!

Of course I think their science is a little skewed. But what can you expect from coppers, docs and politicians? You can't trust the lot o' them.

The odds of being killed by a tsunami are probably quite different for someone living on an island in the Pacific and me. So, I'm taking some of this with a grain of salt. LOL!

Like "1 in 220 Odds of writin' a New York Times Bestseller." I'm going to assume that is *published* books in a year PRIOR to the advent of POD, small press, etc. Otherwise the NYT has everyone fooled about it being the holy grail of publishingdom.

Christie Ridgway said...

Yeah, I'm wondering about that 1 in 220 odds of writing a NYT Bestseller. Those sound much better than I would have expected.

The first set, though, is good for Californians like me. People who live in the other parts of the country are always asking how I could live in a place with earthquakes--but my odds for dying from one are much less than if I lived in an area known for floods, tornados, or lightning strikes!

However, I'm putting my chain saw down and sticking with the writing for today.

Helen Brenna said...

OMG, Betina. I got my first ever royalty statement today, so I really needed this laugh!!

The one that got me was 1 in 2,000 or so shower accidents. Yikes! Maybe I'll stretch those showers out a bit.

Here's a good one to know - the odds of catching the human form of mad cow disease is 1 in 40,000,000. Whew!

Oh, and nice to know I only have 216 books left for an NYT nod!! LOL

Michele Hauf said...

Hey, ladies, don't spoil it for me! I was really excited about those NYT odds. (Isn't it interesting that we all fixated on that one?)

And the odds of getting killed by an asteroid are greater than by a tsunami? Huh.

MsHellion said...

I was excited about the odds of writing a NYT bestseller being rather reachable...1 in 220, except that my odds of dating a millionaire were better...as were my odds of having my identity stole.

NICE, that my odds of being on plane with a drunk pilot are even MORE reachable.

MsHellion said...

OMG, that's so darn quotable:

"Live like you never heard o' Guido. Dance like nobody's shootin' at yer feet. Love like Lola ain't bein' paid by the hour."--I would love to use that in a signature page, but do I put "Betina Krahn" or TK as the author?

Betina Krahn said...

Glad you guys have a sense of humor here. You never know what TK will dream up!

Yes, I was surprised to learn about that 220 to 1 for the NYT, too. And the thing about pilots-- scary. i think TK ought to check with that mook at Princeton. On the other hand. . . I generally do dance as if nobody is shooting at my feet!

Betina Krahn said...

Mshellion, I'm not sure who should take the blame for that one. I think maybe TK-via-Betina Krahn?

He's pretty full of himself: likes to parody catch phrases and sayings. That one about Dance like no one is watching. . . loving like you've never been hurt. . .

Think he should come back sometime?

MsHellion said...

Yes, but TK's is much more memorable than the sappier version of "dance like no one's watching"--it actually makes me want to dance.

Yes, he should definitely make a comeback and visit. I don't suppose any of your future books would feature someone like him? He'd be a great side character.

Betina Krahn said...

There's always room for a wise guy somewhere. I'll work on it!

:) Betina

Helen Brenna said...

Love TK, Betina. Definitely bring him back to visit again!

Dara Edmondson said...

Isn't it funny how we worry about the wrong stuff - the things with super low odds and ignore those we're most likely to encounter.
NYT list gives us all hope - maybe it's true...

Cindy Gerard said...

TK is a hoot!! Sorry I didn't catch him until today.
What's really scary on this list is 1 - 200 odds of having your identity stolen. Yikes.

I'll look forward to hearing from TK again!!

Betina Krahn said...

Dara, I was surprised to see how low a number the odds on NYT were. I have to wonder if that's odds on a published book becoming and NYT bestseller. hmmmm.

Cindy, TK is delighted to hear how much you like him. He REALLY likes your photo. ahem. When I told him you're happily married, his response was: "A guy's gotta do what a guy's gotta do." Which worried me. But on the bright side, he's really big on "family." I'll suggest he just buy your books and adore you from afar. Way, way afar.

:) Betina

Cait London said...

I love this Odds list. Boy, think of the stories coming out of it.

Susan Kay Law said...

Hmm . . . I know that's supposed to be comforting, but all it really does is give me MORE things to worry about. What can I say, it's a gift.


Betina Krahn said...

Susie-- no, no-- not to worry more! Meant only for fun! And to show how useless worries really are!

Pshaw. What do the number crunchers (and bookies)know?

Sorry TK. But it had to be said.